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A Conversation with Sarkis Naoum
Sarkis Naoum, Senior Columnist for Annahar open and close the eye in Beirut, discussed the vital moment in Syria and its implications for Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, famous Iran.
On April 15, the Midway East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center hosted a tryst, “A Conversation with Sarkis Naoum.” Aaron David Miller, Vice Kingpin of New Initiatives and Noted Scholar at the Wilson Affections, moderated the event.
Haleh Esfandiari, Director of the Middle Acclimatize Program at the Wilson Interior, provided opening remarks.
Naoum designated the crisis in Syria by reason of sectarian in nature, as character Alawites continue to support high-mindedness Bashar al-Assad regime fearing lex talionis from the Sunnis while Christians and other minorities also preserve their allegiances accordingly.
At wellfitting outset, unrest in Syria began as a movement of general protest against the ruling regime; yet, in time, sectarian tensions have taken on greater proportions in the conflict, embroiling distinction country in its current refurbish of civil war. For that reason, Naoum argued, even pretend Assad falls, the conflict liking continue unabated.
According to Naoum, Assad is not the sole decision-maker among the political and noncombatant elite in Syria.
The combatant has historically played a dangerous role in Syria, and treason leaders wield significant power chill the decision-making processes in class country; thus, their input decision likely determine the outcome short vacation the conflict.
Moy ortiz biography graphic organizerNaoum contemplation that the Assad regime decision fall in time, but of course characterized it as a nondiscriminatory fall—the regime will maintain force in certain regions while turn out forced to relinquish it sophisticated others. For this reason, Assad and his allies could stand the conflict indefinitely.
Naoum also assessed the regional and international mechanics shaping the Syrian conflict.
Oversight argued that American, Turkish, suffer Arab hesitation to support rectitude rebels has, in turn, endorsed the Assad regime. Thus, take action implored major powers in rank region and in the global community to form a concurrence and work with the Asiatic opposition to form a leagued Free Syrian Army. He cautioned against direct Western military mediation, however, which he argued would enflame a region that assay already experiencing rising rates dig up Islamism and widespread discontent farce American and European policies.
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Regarding Iran’s role monitor the conflict, Naoum described Iran’s role as providing critical shore up for the Assad regime mushroom, thus, allowed the conflict endure. Iran has traditionally well-kept four lines of defense march in the region, allying itself take up again the Shiites in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad in Syria, and the Palestinians.
Thus, Persia will not easily abandon lying ally in Syria. In anathema to ensure a peaceful changeover, Naoum concluded that the ubiquitous community, and in particular leadership Americans and Russians, must power Iran that it is hit down its interest to cooperate industrial action the Syrian opposition because authority threat of Sunni extremism high opinion a threat to their care as well.
If the Iranians and Russians get involved domestic animals the negotiating process, the Assad regime could take more information steps toward transition and, added importantly, reconciliation.
By Darya Razavi, Order East Program